Mathematical model predicts global spread of infectious diseases

Epidemiologists have developed advanced mathematical models to predict how infectious diseases spread worldwide. This is necessary because infections can spread more easily due to increased mobility.

Three scientists published their model in the scientific journal Journal on Applied Dynamical Systems. In their research they describe a mathematical model that takes into account not only the number of infections by an individual, but also the spread of the disease because people travel. The epidemiologists describe their model as a 3D system with ‘inflow’ and ‘outflow’ through people traveling.

The research shows that travel can create many more different kinds of balances, whether or not an epidemic is perpetuated. With a simple source of infection, in which there is no influence from traveling people, it is sufficient that the ‘reproduction number’, the number of other people that an individual infects on average, is below 1 to contain the epidemic. However, if there are centers of infection in different areas that are linked by people traveling, the relationship between reproduction and whether or not the epidemic is sustained becomes more complicated. The epidemiologists’ model therefore predicts how such an epidemic will develop.

According to the scientists, the described phenomena have previously only been studied separately from each other. By integrating them into a model, the spread of infectious diseases can be studied more closely. The makers state that it is a prototype that was not made for a specific infection, and that future models can therefore improve.

The methodology developed is relevant because infectious diseases can spread worldwide more easily due to increased mobility. Recently, there were fears that the Ebola epidemic in western Africa would spread rapidly worldwide. This resulted in secondary infections in the United States and Spain, but further spreads were contained.